Daily Fantasy Sports MLB Picks, Previews - May 11
Gambling911.com has your daily fantasy sports MLB picks and previews for May 11 along with the long range forecast.
Monday May 11
Series: Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Ubaldo Jimenez He’s 2-2 on the season thus far but only lasted four innings in Wednesday's loss to the Mets. Overall he has pitched especially well to start the season.
There is a bit of a conflict when it comes to this matchup against Toronto. On one hand, he has allowed just 27 hits off of 149 at bats against the current Blue Jays roster, resulting in an impressive .181 ERA. On the other hand, he gave up four runs in five innings on April 22 to this same team in a loss.
The later may not necessarily be the norm though as Jimenez only allowed 2 hits and 2 runs in 5 innings against the Blue Jays last September 16. He permitted 3 hits and 2 runs on June 13 with 6 innings pitched.
Unfortunately, to start of the season last year, Baltimore went 3-12 and Jimenez came unglued April 10 allowing 5 runs off of 10 hits. That was the most number of hits he permitted all season.
Much of that damage was inflicted by the likes of Colby Rasmus (a homer and double) and Brett Lawry (a single and homerun), neither of whom are still on this team.
Devon Travis is the only hitter with a solid record against Jimenez who is currently playing well. Michael Saunders has performed well against Jimenez but has played poorly of late.
Forecast: 3 hits, 2 runs. He deserves a look today.
Marco Estrada – The odds of Estrada pitching into the 5th inning with minimal damage are quite slim. He just joined the starting rotation and, in 4.2 innings, managed to give up 8 hits and 5 runs against the Yankees.
There are no good daily fantasy picks to select versus Estrada due to what we anticipate will be limited play. Sports bettors at our sister site Gambling911.com may be wise to consider the Orioles here if the price is right. They should be the road favorites.
Devon Travis has continued his torrid start at the plate with his first career grand slam and his seventh home run of the season. He’s been inching up towards $3500.
Series: Braves vs. Reds
Reds starter Mike Leake has pitched at least 7 innings in his last five starts, including three in which he went the full eight. He’s allowed no more than 4 runs in his first six starts, and that was only on one occasion.
Current White Sox players who have had success against Leake include left-fielder Kelly Johnson (5-for-16 with a homer) and a solid DFS pick for Monday, Andrelton Simmons, who has gone 5-for-13 against Leake with a double but, more importantly, has had at least one hit in nine straight games.
Aside from Kelly Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, only Nick Markakis has managed to average above the .251 mark for those with more than 3 at bats.
Our prediction is that Leake will permit no fewer than two runs in this game and probably make it into the 8th inning.
Shelby Miller – He hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in five of his six starts to the season (the most allowed being 3). Miller has pitched at least 6 innings in his last four starts (9 innings in his last start, a shutout vs. Philadelphia). His last start against the Reds resulted in 3 runs given up and a 1-5 loss. Revenge should be fresh on his mind for this one, making Miller an excellent starter on one’s daily fantasy roster at approximately $8700 (subject to change slightly).
Aside from that shutout game against Philadelphia, each of the first five games Miller has started have gone UNDER 7.5.
The current Reds roster has batted .218 against Miller.
Monitor our sister site Gambling911.com to see if they take the UNDER on this game (watch for a total that opens at either 7.5 or 7 and moves down a half) and Miller, who will likely get the edge. Atlanta should come into this game as the dog, making him all the more enticing.
Andrelton Simmons – Priced right at around $2500. An excellent play for today.
Series: Athletics vs. Red Sox
A’s starting pitcher Scott Kazmir hadn’t allowed more than 6 hits and 3 runs to be scored in his first five starts. He’s coming off a rough outing against Minnesota in which he uncharacteristically permitted 6 runs in six innings. The Oakland relievers helped put the nail in the coffin with another 7 runs allowed in a Twins 13-0 shutout.
Since Kazmir’s April 19 start, the A’s relievers have allowed at least two additional runs in his last four starts.
If history is any indication, Kazmir could be in for another rough outing on Monday as he has allowed 34-for-114 at bats (13 of which were extra base hits) vs. Boston’s current roster. He’s just shy of a .300 ERA when facing the Red Sox.
That said, he only permitted two runs on four hits in his lone start against Boston last season and three runs on five hits the year prior.
Dustin Pedroia, who has gone 19-for-38 against Kazmir with a .500 ERA, will come into this game having hit in nine of his last ten games, homering only once. In eight of those games he had just a single hit and is currently sitting at a .277 ERA.
It’s interesting to note that 29 hits of the 34 at bats have been made by Pedroia and David Ortiz, who also has 8 RBIs against Kazmir. Ortiz is batting at .235 currently and, despite his impressive looking number of hits versus the A’s starter, he’s only registered a .208 average against him to date.
Rick Porcello is coming off his third win of the season while Boston has been victorious in four of his last six starts.
Even though he permitted 8 hits in his last start, he gave up zero runs to Tampa Bay. He’s allowed four or more runs in half his starts.
Porcello has had an equally impressive record in recent starts against Oakland, allowing zero runs on four hits back on July 1 of last year and just one hit during the 2013 post season.
It will cost you $7800 to have Porcello on your lineup today compared to the high $9500+ price you will be paying for Kazmir. The concern is that Porcello has had two straight solid performances and we here at DFS911.com fear a letdown of sorts. We also need to caution that Porcello has had trouble pitching against left-handers and Oakland does have a few solid lefties.
Scott Kazmir looks like a better option under these circumstances.
Billy Butler and Josh Reddick are both averaging over .300 against Porcello.
Look at the UNDER here if you plan on betting this game but just be mindful that the Oakland relievers are giving up plenty of runs.
Dustin Pedroia – The Red Sox 2nd baseman is priced around and, despite his .500 ERA vs. Scott Kazmir, should get only mild consideration this day. He comes in priced at $2900.
Josh Reddick – He is 2-for-6 against Porcello and playing well of late.
Coming into Sunday's game against Texas, Evan Longoria picked up hits in five straight games and has gone deep on three occasions during that period. He has a .292 average. He is 24-for-58 with 6 homeruns and 14 RBIs against CC Sabathia.
Eric Hosmer has at least one hit in nine of his last ten games and at least 2 in four of those. The Royals first baseman is 4-for-10 versus the Rangers Colby Lewis.
Tuesday May 12
Series: Twins vs. Tigers
Kyle Gibson has allowed at least 4 runs in three of his last four starts against the Tigers. He gave up 6 runs to Detroit his first start of the season.
It helps that Gibson comes into this one with a scoreless streak of 17 innings as he is due to give up a few here against the offensive minded Tigers.
He goes up against Alfredo Simon, who is 4-1 but winless in his last two starts.
His exposure to Twins batters has been minimal but Kurt Suzuki is 4-for-7 against him with two homeruns. He’s come alive somewhat in recent games.
Kurt Suzuki – With two homeruns against Simon in just 7 at bats, you gotta think he’ll hit at least one out of the park today or at the very least get extra bases. Good price too at $2200 so he’s a must for our roster here at DFS911.com.
Miguel Cabrerra – But of course! Even at the steep price of $4900. Cabrerra is 5-for-12 versus Gibson with 4 RBIs and a homerun. If you can afford him, go for it.
Series: Blue Jays vs. Orioles
This one could be a bloodbath for Toronto’s Mark Buehrie as he has allowed the current Orioles roster to hit 70-for-203 off of him. He’s also permitted 11 or more runs in two of his last starts (Buehrie picked up a win in his last start).
Sure he had two quality starts against the Orioles this season already but Buehrie also gave up 8 hits in each of those. Both times he lasted 6 innings.
Baltimore’s Chris Tillman has given up 7 runs in his two starts vs. Toronto this season. He gave up 10 hits his last start going up against the Yankees.
Gamblers should monitor our sister site Gambling911.com to see if the OVER option is in play based on the posted total and any number movement by the oddsmakers. Note that four of the last six in this series heading into Monday had gone OVER 10 with another total hitting 8.
Jose Bautista – Following a sluggish start, Bautista has hit in eight of his last ten games and is 8-for-30 against Tillman with 5 RBIs and two homers.
Travis Snider has hit one time each in seven of his last ten games with one homer. He’s priced at $2300. He’s 5-for-9 against Buehrie. The odds are good he’ll have at least a single against him in this game.
Josh Donaldson is 5-for-13 vs. Tillman.
Caleb Joseph is does have 5 RBIs over his last 10 games with nine hits. He entered Sunday’s game with an impressive .311 batting average and .907 OPS for the season but failed to have any hits. He’s 4-for-8 with a homerun against Buehrie.
Kevin Pillar – True he hasn’t gotten a hit in three days but is due and goes up against the man who has allowed him 3 hits on 7 at bats including a homerun. He’s priced at $2600 coming into this game.
Jacoby Ellsbury - DFS911.com is making it mandatory that you must include Yankees Ellsbury on your roster this evening. After all, he is sporting over a .300 ERA and comes into this game having gone 10-for-15 against Tampa Bay's Chris Archer. That's sick.
Curtis Granderson - The Mets player is 9-for 25 against Jake Arieta with three homeruns and 8 RBIs.
Wednesda May 13
Alex Rodriguez - He is 1-for-4 against Nathan Karnes with a homer.
- Vito Conti, DFS911.com